A review and reflection on "Predictions for the Chunichi Dragons' key players in 2018"

The 2018 season is over, and the players' performance statistics are starting to solidify.
Before the season started, I made predictions about which players would perform well for the Chunichi Dragons this year, so I'd like to look back and reflect on those predictions.
I feel like I've been betrayed a lot, but I'll be sure to review things carefully.
The "○" and "×" written next to the result do not indicate whether the result was good or bad, but rather whether the prediction was correct or not.

Main pitcher

Shinnosuke Ogasawara

·prediction
He had the best performance in the preseason games and is even being considered as a candidate for opening day.
He has been steadily improving so far, so he definitely has the potential to become a top-class player this season.
I think the biggest factor is that his curveball accuracy has improved, allowing him to throw strikes more often.

・Result ×
While there are improvements in his earned run average and other metrics, the high pitch count and the noticeable drop in velocity as the innings progress are problematic.
球数を抑えられるようなピッチングの工夫が必要そうです。
It's unfortunate that he injured his elbow midway through and had to undergo surgery again.
He wasn't able to maintain his place in the rotation throughout the season, but he's still young, so we have high hopes for his future.
 

Shinji Tajima

·prediction
He served as the closer throughout last season, but there are some concerns, such as him getting hit hard at venues like Tokyo Dome.
He hasn't performed particularly well in the preseason games, but I think he'll do reasonably well once the season starts.
He's the kind of versatile pitcher who would ideally be better suited as a setup man than a closer, but the team's current situation doesn't allow for that.

・Result ×
He managed to keep opponents in check at the beginning of the season, but a series of disappointing pitching performances led to him being sent down to the minor leagues in the middle of the season.
Even after his return, he continued to fail in relief appearances and was unable to live up to expectations.
This player is a prime example of the "collapse of the relief pitching staff" for the Chunichi Dragons this year.

Keisuke Tanimoto

·prediction
He's a promising relief pitcher who joined the team midway through last year.
Last year, the environment changed suddenly, and I'm sure there were many difficult aspects, but as expected of a seasoned veteran with a proven track record, things have settled down nicely.
We expect him to perform brilliantly right from the start of this season.
We hope he can handle anything skillfully, whether it's long relief when the starting pitcher falters, relief in close games, or relief in winning situations.

・Result ×
He was hit hard from the start of the season and was completely unable to perform well.
I spent most of my time in the minor leagues, and even there I wasn't able to achieve the results I wanted.

Katsuki Matayoshi

·prediction
He was trying out as a starting pitcher, but has been moved back to the bullpen.
It must be frustrating for him, as he wants to be a starting pitcher, but for the fans, having Matayoshi in the bullpen is very reassuring.
When he's pitching in relief, the velocity of his pitches is noticeably different from when he's starting.

・Result ×
As a relief pitcher, he continued to have inconsistent performances.
In particular, we often allowed the leadoff batter to reach base, which frequently led to runs being scored against us.
The reason for his slump was probably that his slider, which he relied on, lost some of its break, forcing him to rely almost entirely on his fastball.

Yuya Yanagi

·prediction
He struggled with injuries last year, but he's capable of much more.
He has lived up to those expectations, demonstrating exceptional consistency in the preseason games.
I hope he approaches this season as his first and pitches throughout the entire year.
He's a reliable and highly polished starting pitcher, so I'm sure he'll be included in the rotation.

・Result ×
He had a great start to the season, with excellent results in the preseason games and a shutout against the Yakult Swallows in April.
However, he was once again sent down to the minor leagues due to injury, and there were hardly any opportunities to see him play after that.
Given that he's not being used in demanding roles right now, and considering he's suffered injuries for two consecutive years, it might be best not to have high expectations for him going forward.

Shota Suzuki

·prediction
His fastball is characterized by its exceptional movement and seems to possess something more than what the speed gun indicates.
He's a starting pitcher who relies on his fastball, but he has trouble with control.
I think it would be counterproductive if he focuses too much on control and his fastball suffers, but he still lacks consistency.
It looks like it'll be a mix of good times and bad times.

・Result ○
As expected, his pitching remained inconsistent.
However, the emergence of other starting pitchers reduced his opportunities to pitch, so it wasn't a completely accurate prediction.

Yudai Ohno

·prediction
Despite high expectations, he's a starting pitcher who hasn't been able to consistently secure wins.
It's hard to say anything for sure, as we won't know until we open the lid.
Unfortunately, their performance in the preseason games hasn't been great, so the outlook for this year may be bleak as well.

・Result ◎
As expected, this season ended in disappointment.
He's struggling to even throw strikes, and he doesn't seem to be in a condition to pitch as a starter.
Analyzing the various metrics reveals that he is well-suited to being a relief pitcher.
With the bullpen in such disarray right now, I think it might be worth trying my hand at that.

Daisuke Sobue

·prediction
As a middle reliever, I think I'll pitch in around 30 to 40 games this year.
It's scary how a bad slider can ruin everything, but I like the new form that Colón has.

・Result ○
He pitched in 50 games, exceeding expectations, and has grown into a player who can pitch in winning situations.
If the other relief pitchers hadn't collapsed, the number of games played would have been even lower, and I think my prediction would have been accurate.
Rather than winning the competition, it felt more like the others dropped out on their own, but I think they did their best throughout the season.

Takuya Mitsuma

·prediction
Along with Tanimoto and Matayoshi, he's a pitcher who's often seen as being overworked.
Last year, he often pitched on consecutive days or for multiple innings, and there were many times when I felt sorry for him.
I know it's not good to show your distress on your face, but it's also true that you can't help but want to cheer them on.
If he builds up his stamina properly, he should be able to pitch well in the second half of the season as well.

・Result ×
Things got progressively worse in the latter half of last year, and it eventually came to an end.
This season, things have continued to go downhill from there.

G

·prediction
He's a right-handed starting pitcher who joined the team this year and has approximately 50 wins in the major leagues.
His distinguishing features include not having a clean straight pitch, relying primarily on a two-seam fastball, and possessing a variety of breaking balls.
Perhaps because of this, batters often miss the sweet spot and hit ground balls, and if the infield defense is solid, the number of pitches will also decrease.
His control is also good, so he's practically guaranteed a spot in the starting rotation for now.
I think it will be quite useful.

・Result ×
I was eliminated quite early on, which was a huge miscalculation on my part.
It's a shame, as he was a pitcher who could throw long innings, even completing two games in his few appearances.
His absence likely placed a greater burden on the relief pitchers.
That's a shame.

Junki Ito

·prediction
He didn't have much success in the preseason games, but he did well as a relief pitcher last year.
I think he'll be a reliable asset this year as well, whether as a long reliever or a setup man.
I think last year was essentially the first time I pitched seriously as a relief pitcher, so I think I'll do a bit better this year, on par with Mitsuma.

・Result ×
Although he had achieved decent results, he was demoted to the minor leagues early in the season and never saw them again.
I was secretly hoping he would come back as a savior for our relief pitching staff, but...
It seems that manager Mori still wants to have him pitch as a starter, so that might be part of the problem.

Main infielders

Masahiro Araki

·prediction
Reaching 400 career stolen bases might be difficult, but I think he's a cut above the rest in terms of overall ability, including hitting, fielding, and base running.
Honestly, unless there's a reason to develop younger players, I think it's perfectly fine to keep him in the starting lineup.
It's likely that Araki will often be in the starting lineup at second base when facing a left-handed pitcher.

・Result △
Araki didn't end up playing when facing a left-handed pitcher.
However, he mainly made his presence felt in fielding and base running, and I think he performed well enough to be a starter.
With his retirement announcement, it's sad that we can no longer predict what Araki will do next season.

Shuhei Takahashi

·prediction
He's a promising player that the team is "trying to make the regular second baseman."
He's certainly a player who gives us hope every year that his batting will improve, but this year we'll see how it goes with his attempt at playing second base.
I think my defense has improved quite a bit, but the people I'm being compared to are Araki and Kamezawa, so the bar is set pretty high (laughs).
Fans won't be satisfied unless he hits a lot.
It would be best if I could impress them with my power hitting, something the other two don't have.

・Result △
Although he established himself as a regular starter at second base, his power hitting, which is his strong point, was somewhat lacking.
However, he was a clutch hitter, and while his batting average was around .260, he still managed to rack up a good number of RBIs.
While his defensive skills aren't quite on par with Araki's, he's still performing adequately, and we can expect great things from him next season.

Yota Kyoda

·prediction
He won the undisputed starting shortstop position last year, becoming last year's Rookie of the Year.
Based on their experience competing throughout last year, we hope they can achieve even better results this year.
I think we can expect him to perform at about the same level as last year.
This year, we're hoping to see him show the tenacity to draw walks.

・Result ×
His performance was worse than last year, and the tenacity he showed in drawing walks was not as noticeable.
However, his stamina and physical strength, which allow him to continue playing in matches, are attractive qualities.
As long as he avoids injuries, I believe he will definitely gain experience and grow as a person.

Kyohei Kamezawa

·prediction
I think he's the kind of player who could easily be a regular on some teams.
It's a highly competitive position again this year, but I hope he does his best.
He can do anything – pinch-hitting, defensive substitution, pinch-running – and he'll likely be a valuable utility player in the infield again this year.

・Result ◎
He performed as expected, starting against right-handed pitchers, pinch-hitting, defensive substitutions, and pinch-running.
If Fujii is the utility player in the outfield, then Kamezawa would be the utility player in the infield.
He has a high on-base percentage as a pinch hitter, making him a very appealing player.

Nagamasa Fukuda

·prediction
He boasts one of the highest home run rates among Japanese players and is the most promising player on the team this year.
Fans unanimously agree that he possesses the power to hit 30 home runs in a year.
I hope you can achieve that this year and gain confidence.
While your serious nature shines through, I hope you can relax a bit so that your mental fragility doesn't show.

・Result ×
This year was expected to be a breakthrough year, but my performance was worse than last year.
He still has a bad habit of swinging at balls outside the strike zone, and once he's behind in the count, he easily makes outs.
He often makes hits in situations that don't significantly impact the overall outcome of the game, so we hope to see him grow mentally.

Naomichi Dojo

·prediction
With Kyoda joining the team, the competition for second base has intensified, and Fukuda is now at third base, leaving no room for anyone to break in.
However, his impenetrable defensive skills are indispensable for solidifying the defense in the late stages of games, so he will likely remain on the first team roster throughout this year as well.

・Result ◎
As expected, he has established himself on the first-team bench as a defensive specialist, just like last year.
However, his presence as a player is minimal, and I worry whether it's really okay for him to end his career at this level.

Vicedo

·prediction
Last year, I was absent for an extended period due to issues related to obtaining citizenship.
If they stay with us throughout the year, I think they'll achieve some pretty good results.
His unique and powerful downswing allows him to hit even outside pitches into the right-field stands, making him a very reliable player.
Two years ago, he struggled when pitchers attacked him with inside pitches, but I hope he can overcome that this year.

・Result ◎
This year, he consistently played as the cleanup hitter throughout the year and achieved very high results.
He learned to be patient with inside pitches, and showed tenacity at the plate.
He's also very good defensively, and is a very reliable key player for the team.

Main outfielder

Atsushi Fujii

·prediction
He's a player who can do everything—running, hitting, and fielding—so he's more useful when he's on the bench than when he's in the starting lineup.
Therefore, I think I'll be able to stay on the first team all year.

・Result ◎
As expected, he solidified his position as a regular member of the bench.
When outfielders were injured, he also played as a starter, which helped to mitigate the decline in the team's overall strength.

Ryosuke Hirata

·prediction
If he stays injury-free, he's a five-tool player with speed, good fielding skills, a good eye for pitches, and the ability to hit home runs.
(Like former Yokohama player Tamura...)
He would achieve considerable success if he avoided injuries, but that's probably unlikely.
Fortunately, we have a fair number of players who can fill the gaps.

・Result ×
I was pleasantly surprised.
Throughout the year, he avoided any major injuries and achieved results that put him close to winning the batting title.
I've always supported putting Hirata in the leadoff spot, and I'm happy that it's finally come to fruition this season and has been successful.
Fortunately, if we sacrificed power hitting and focused on getting on base, our core hitters would somehow manage to pull it off.

Yohei Oshima

·prediction
He's the most reliable hitter on the Dragons.
With his consistent ability to hit .300 every year, his speed to steal bases regularly, and his occasional home run, he's sure to have another successful year.

・Result △
Although I was in very poor form at the beginning of the season, I managed to recover somewhat in the second half.
However, thankfully, he's lost the moniker of "the most reliable hitter."

Almonte

·prediction
He's a powerful switch-hitter who joined the team this year.
The swing appears to involve only small steps and the use of the upper body, but it produces an astonishing amount of distance.
I think he'll be the type of player who combines power hitting and contact hitting, similar to Seguinol during his time with the Nippon Ham Fighters.
He was also seen skillfully scooping up many breaking balls, demonstrating his ability to handle curveballs.
If you can overlook his sluggish defense, he could be entrusted with left field or designated hitter.

・Result ○
He hit home runs from the start of the season through the interleague games, and combined with his unique appearance, he quickly became famous.
He lost his form after that, but he recovered towards the end of the season, and I think it's commendable that he managed to stay within the .300 range.
He has a serious personality, and his defensive skills have also improved.
If he doesn't suffer any knee or wrist injuries, I think he'll be able to perform well next season as well.

Secondary ace pitcher

Hitoshi Iwase

·prediction
Last year, he showed surprisingly good pitching ability, but signs of decline were still evident.
However, by learning a new breaking ball, he showed that he still has room to compete in the preseason games.
He was a key player during the team's golden age, so it's great to see him doing well, but it's a little sad that no player has emerged who can replace Iwase.
I hope he'll do his best, also serving as a coach for the younger players.

・Result ○
He pitched a lot in winning situations and managed to hold the team together when the relief pitchers collapsed.
Although signs of decline were visible, there was still hope that he would somehow manage to pull through even in a crisis.
Is it a bad thing that Iwase is still a viable player, or is it because Iwase is just amazing...?

Kazuki Yoshimi

·prediction
Since the surgery, my pitching speed, which wasn't particularly fast to begin with, has decreased, and I've been having a tough season.
No matter how good your control is, if your fastball velocity isn't in the mid-140s, you'll likely struggle to make it in the major leagues.
I feel that he possesses a very high level of professionalism, and I hope that younger generations will learn from his attitude.
I think there's a possibility he could fill a gap in the rotation.

・Result ×
It was a pleasant surprise, but far from being in a gap in the rotation, he was actually keeping his place in the rotation.
I thought it would be tough for him to make it to the first team, but he showed that he still has a lot to offer as a starting pitcher, with a high quality start rate.

Koji Fukutani

·prediction
Despite having a decent fastball speed, he has an inconsistent quality that makes him prone to giving up hits.
Even when I see him pitch, his fastball doesn't seem to have good control, and he always appears inconsistent.

・Result ○
As expected, it remained unstable.
However, due to a shortage of relief pitchers, he has had more opportunities to pitch than last year.

Takuma Achira

·prediction
Despite having a considerable track record as the ace pitcher in the minor leagues, he's not being called up to the major leagues very often.
It's so well-balanced that I feel like it lacks any particular strengths.
With the starting rotation for the first team already established, I don't think there will be many opportunities to be called up from above.

・Result ○
I'm very disappointed that he didn't get a single appearance on the first team.
However, I think that the reason they haven't risen to the top is partly due to bad timing and bad luck, so I hope they'll do their best.

Takuya Asao

·prediction
He seems to have better control than Fukutani, but his fastball is still nowhere near its peak, and he comes across as lacking power.
However, if he performs well, I think he'll have just as many opportunities to pitch as Sobue, so I still have high hopes for him.

・Result ×
As expected, he didn't get as many opportunities to pitch as Sobue, who had appeared in 50 games.
Since there's no prospect of improvement, retirement seems unavoidable.
He was a valuable star player for the Chunichi Dragons, symbolizing their golden age.
 

Secondary infielder

Toshiki Abe

·prediction
He's a player who's good defensively and his hitting is improving, but he's unfortunate because there's no position for him to play.
I think he's a player who could easily take over if something happened to Araki or Shuhei.
He's developed more power hitting, and I think he can also be effective as a pinch hitter.

・Result ×
I think it wouldn't be a bad idea to put him on the bench as a pinch hitter, but he didn't make the cut.
Since the pinch hitters on the right are Araki and Dojo, there seems to be an opportunity for him to step in.

Semi-main outfielder

Issei Endo

·prediction
His strong point is his hitting, but with Almonte in left field, Oshima in center field, and Hirata in right field, there's hardly any room for him to break into the lineup.
He's the kind of player who would step up if one of the three gets injured.

・Result ×
Even when one of the three got injured, it didn't cause any problems.
He didn't make an appearance in the first team this year, making it a disappointing result.

Yusuke Matsui

·prediction
He's a player whose strong point is his hitting.
Last year, he filled in for Hirata when he was absent and performed exceptionally well.
While he may fall short in terms of defense, his hitting is just as reliable.
With Hirata likely to be sidelined due to injury, he is the leading candidate for the second-string outfielder position.

・Result ×
Because the outfield was almost perfect and Fujii filled the gap, he didn't get the opportunity to be called up to the first team.
It was disappointing that I couldn't live up to expectations even with the limited opportunities I had as a pinch hitter.
 

Expected Slot

Hiroshi Suzuki

·prediction
He's a powerful pitcher who was the first overall pick in last year's draft.
Although he throws the ball fairly evenly, the risk of him loading the bases with walks makes him still a bit of a threat as a closer.
However, his fastball velocity is impressive, so if he can refine his breaking balls and consistently throw strikes, I think he could even become a closer.

・Result ○
His struggles with walks were expected, but since he was appointed closer early in the season when he was performing well, I'll consider my prediction correct.
However, it's very unfortunate that he was subsequently crushed by the pressure and demoted to the minor leagues.
Since it's only their first year, I have high hopes for the future.
 

Shotaro Kasahara

·prediction
He doesn't have a huge track record yet, but he's a promising left-handed pitcher who has been consistently delivering solid performances since the latter half of last year.
It's like SoftBank's pitcher Wada; his left arm, which is hidden behind his body, suddenly emerges at the moment of release.
It seems difficult to see where the ball is coming from, as we often see batters getting jammed by fastballs that are only around 140 km/h.
In addition to that, he also has good control and precision with his breaking balls, and he seems to have considerable stamina.
If we stick to the rotation properly, I think we can get 10 wins.

・Result △
Although he wasn't able to maintain his rotation, he performed well in the second half of the season, contributing to five consecutive wins.
If he can pitch consistently throughout the year, I think he'll be close to achieving double-digit wins.

Yusuke Kinoshita

·prediction
He's a relief pitcher known for his fastball, which reaches nearly 150 km/h, and his forkball.
Now that he's been registered as a regular player, I hope he can maintain his motivation and revitalize the relief pitching staff.
He had some traumatic experiences, such as giving up a grand slam shortly after being registered as a professional player, but hopefully he can just accept it as a preseason game.
Depending on his performance in future appearances, I think he could potentially become a setup man or closer.

・Result ×
The result was not conducive to pitching in a winning pattern.
His fastball speed and forkball are impressive, but his control is a weakness.
However, he has the potential to become a successful relief pitcher, so we should keep an eye on him in the future.

Daisuke Matsuzaka

·prediction
To be honest, I don't think they're a valuable asset in terms of combat power.
However, for the relatively low-profile Chunichi Dragons, it's the only thing that attracts attention, and I think it will help increase attendance.
I really hope he pitches on weekends and holidays to draw crowds to the dome.

・Result ×
He achieved the second-highest number of wins on the team and was a valuable asset.
His pitching style involved throwing a lot of pitches and often allowed runners on base, but his appeal lay in his extraordinary tenacity, such as striking out batters in critical situations.
反面、崩れるときは一気に崩れます。
The mental strength displayed during critical situations is something the Chunichi Dragons' pitchers should emulate.

Mist

·prediction
These are the foreign players who joined the team this season.
With his large 201cm frame, he's also a switch hitter.
Compared to Almonte, he gives a slightly rougher impression, and seems to struggle against inside pitches and off-speed pitches.
He's still young, so he might not be a player who only plays this year, but it looks like he'll be struggling to adapt for a while.

・Result △
He may not have fully adapted to Japanese baseball, but he performed well before and after the interleague games.
He's hitting nearly 40%, and we can expect great things from him in the future.
However, it feels like we've been at a disadvantage due to the foreign player quota.
He's a player I'd like to bring up as a replacement when Almonte is out of form.

A crucial year

·prediction

Kei Nomoto

Every year, I get the impression that he's going to be released, but somehow he manages to stay with the team.
He was drafted first overall, and there are relationships with his alma mater and the company he's working for, so it might be difficult to cut him.
However, in recent years, opportunities to perform have really decreased, and I think things are starting to look bad.

・Result ○
It's not because of my performance, but I've decided to retire.

Shota Tomonaga & Masaki Iryo

·prediction
They are both similar types of players, and are in their late twenties.
Although he's been given opportunities to bat in exhibition games and other matches, he hasn't been able to produce results, making his situation increasingly difficult.

・Result ○
Since he hasn't played in any first-team games, he might be cut from the team.

Ryosuke Oguma

·prediction
He was expected to be a starting pitcher, but in recent years, with the rise of younger players, his opportunities to pitch have decreased.
Especially last year, I was given an opportunity but couldn't make the most of it, so I think it's about time I started to fail.

・Result ×
He joined the rotation in the second half of the season and produced some results.
His fastball velocity has increased, and I think he's become a well-rounded pitcher.
I think we can expect good things from them next season as well.

Shunta Wakamatsu

·prediction
Although he's still young, I was impressed by Director Mori's harsh comments.
I really hope he can make a comeback with his lifeline changeup and control.

・Result ×
Far from making a comeback, he didn't even get a chance to pitch.
I have a feeling they might be used as trading fodder.

Daisuke Yamai

·prediction
He's reached veteran status, but to put it simply, he's an "unstable" player.
Back then, when things were going well, they were unstoppable, and when things were going badly, they were completely hopeless.
In recent years, the proportion of bad times has been steadily increasing, giving the impression of a gradual decline.
The content of the day's game will depend on how well the slider turns out.

・Result ○
As expected, the results were inconsistent.
When he's good, he's really good, and I think it's great that he had a shutout this season.
However, the proportion of "good times" has been decreasing year by year, so I feel that retirement might be on the horizon.

summary

Many of my predictions were along the lines of, "Since they had a good year, they'll probably do well next year too."
However, it must be extremely difficult for a player who has only performed well for one year to continue performing well the following year.
Many of our predictions turned out to be wrong.

On the other hand, it's also true that many players have defied expectations and performed exceptionally well.
In order to compete at the top, I think it's necessary to have a constant stream of new players emerge who can defy fans' expectations.
To achieve this, the draft and the development of young players are crucial.
It's understandable that we'll be in last place for a while, but I hope that this will give our young players a chance to develop.

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