I've been watching professional baseball lately and something has been bothering me.
This is about "strengthening the defense" when you're leading in the second half of the match.
This time, I'd like to consider whether or not we should focus on strengthening our defense.
Defensive reinforcement
In professional baseball, defensive substitutions primarily refer to replacing a player with strong batting skills but weak defensive skills with a player with strong defensive skills, especially when the team is leading.
This is often done, especially in the second half of a match, when preventing goals conceded takes priority over scoring opportunities.
In terms of timing, a typical scenario is when a player scheduled to be substituted, who will likely be making their final at-bat of the day, gets on base, and a pinch runner replaces them, with the pinch runner then taking their place in the field defensively.
If that player fails to get on base, they are often replaced in the next defensive inning.
Additionally, in what is likely to be the final inning, a closer may be brought in, along with defensive substitutions.
Advantages and disadvantages of strengthening the defense
The main benefit of strengthening the defense is, of course, that it improves defensive capabilities.
When you have a lead in the late stages of a game, the importance of hitting becomes relatively lower.
In that case, you can reduce the possibility of conceding a goal by substituting a player who is not very good at defense with a player who is.
Furthermore, if substitutions are made to strengthen the defense, it helps reduce fatigue for the players who were originally on the field.
On the other hand, a disadvantage is that if the game is tied and goes into extra innings, defensive players will be batting.
Defensive players are on the bench precisely because they can't hit.
If he can hit like that, he'd normally be in the starting lineup.
Having players who can't hit in the batting order creates a gap in the offense, reducing the team's scoring ability.
Consideration
My curiosity was sparked when I was watching a Chunichi Dragons game in 2018.
With a one-run lead, the Chunichi Dragons substituted left fielder Almonte with Fujii towards the end of the game.
Almonte, the fifth batter, is a good hitter, but he's not particularly fast and his fielding isn't very good.
Fujii, who was substituted in defensively, was a fast player with a wide defensive range.
They substituted Almonte for Fujii to strengthen the defense, but then their pitcher was hit hard, the score was tied, and the game went into extra innings.
If there are concerns about the relief pitchers in the first place, simply strengthening the defense won't be enough to prevent runs from being scored.
After that, Chunichi created chances and went on the offensive, but the opposing team exploited the weakness of having Fujii in the 5th spot in the batting order, and intentionally walked the 4th batter, allowing the opposing team to escape unscathed.
It's easy to say this is hindsight, but scenes like this were frequently seen during the 2018 season.
The Dragons under manager Ochiai in the past played a style of baseball where they relied on a strong pitching and defense to hold onto a single run.
However, that strategy is only possible if you have a strong bullpen.
The current Chunichi Dragons have a decent starting rotation, a strong batting lineup, but a completely collapsed bullpen.
In this situation, it will be difficult to win unless you play a style of baseball that focuses on hitting the ball well, rather than a style that relies on defending a single run.
(This strategy is not well-suited to Nagoya Dome, a home stadium that is unfavorable to hitters...)
Furthermore, even when we talk about strengthening the defense, it's usually only about two or three positions at most.
It won't be effective if the ball isn't hit to that position, and I doubt how much impact a defensive substitution for just one inning will have.
conclusion
In conclusion, regarding whether or not to strengthen the defense, I think "if the team has a solid bullpen, then they should do it."
If a team has concerns about its relief pitching staff, it's probably best to avoid making easy defensive substitutions in the late innings of a close game.
Summary of articles related to the Chunichi Dragons
同じくプロ野球の采配にまつわる話として、以下の記事も書いています。
What is the "left-right obsession" in professional baseball? Is having a left-right matchup truly advantageous?