Is it a bad-shaped, high-scoring tenpai, or a good-shaped, low-scoring tenpai?

Is it a bad shape with a high price, or a good shape with a low price?

As the title says.
For example, consider the following situation in the image.
自分の実戦譜より。

In the final hand, as the dealer, I was in fourth place and managed to hold on for a few rounds, but I was in a situation where I had no choice but to attack and win.

Should I discard 3p and aim for a good shape with Tanyao Dora Dora,
Should I discard 6p and aim for a bad shape with three colors, tanyao, and dora dora?

In conclusion, the latter is the better option; you should discard the 6p and aim for a three-color Tanyao Dora Dora (a high-scoring hand with a bad shape).

"Even if the score doubles due to a bad hand, the winning rate doesn't drop by half."
Given this data, considering the station's expected value, the latter option should be chosen.

However, if this were a winning hand in the final round, the situation would be completely different.
Agari Top is like a yakuman (a high-scoring hand in mahjong), so the correct approach is to accept a good hand shape.

In the case of my own game records

I was so focused on getting the win that I ended up discarding the 3p.
It might be good if you can finish in third place with a good form, but even if you finish with just 5800 points (plus deposit and three rounds), you'll still only have the points to finish in fourth place.
Since it's becoming increasingly difficult to create winning moves, we should have aimed for the highest expected value.

After that, a 4p was eventually dealt, and I won with a score of 5800.
In hindsight, I feel like I missed a great opportunity, and that feeling has left a strong impression on me.

A theory that can be used in various situations

When calling tiles results in a hand consisting only of honor tiles, or a hand with both honor tiles and an honor tile, and the score is tripled, the bad shape is advantageous.
(Good shape: 1000 points or Bad shape: 3900 points)

However, the situation is different when it's a chase reach.

However, these conclusions apply to flat market conditions.
When you're going for a chasing reach, I think it's better to have a good hand shape if it doubles your points.
In the case of a good hand, you can increase your score through self-drawn wins and the deposit of opponents' reach sticks, so I think a good hand is slightly more advantageous than a hand with calls.

If we start breaking it down into detailed cases, it seems like we could divide it into many different categories,To put it simply, a rough conclusion would be that a high-ranking, unfavorable shape is advantageous.