Avoiding Last Place in JanTama | Strategies for Lowering Your Last-Place Rate and Dealing with Unfair Downswings

Preface

「なんでこの手だけこんな負け方をするんだ」「正しい判断をしていたはずなのに、なぜこんな理不尽なラスを引くんだ」――麻雀を続けていれば、誰でも一度はそう感じたことがあると思います。
先制リーチが一発でツモられる、放銃を避けたはずの牌で振り込む、そういう瞬間は麻雀をやっている以上どうしても避けられません。
今回は、そういった理不尽に感じるラスとどう向き合っていくか、実際に意識していることを書いていきます。

The other day, I was promoted to Mahjong Saint 2 in the online mahjong game, Jan-tama.
I experienced a period of slump right before my promotion, which meant it took me quite a while to achieve my goal, even though I was so close.

I've decided to write an article whenever I get promoted in rank, so this time I'll write about some of the things I'm conscious of.

Try not to be swayed by good and bad performance (mental aspect).

Anyone who has been playing mahjong for a long time, not just on Mahjong Soul, will have experienced firsthand that there are periods of good luck and periods of bad luck in mahjong.
While the biases in mahjong tend to average out over the long term, over a span of around 100 games, luck plays a significant role.
Just because you've come in last place once doesn't mean you won't come in last place again for a while; sometimes you might even come in last place again in a row when things are going badly.
「理不尽だ」と感じるのは、判断が間違っていたからではなく、単純に確率的な下振れを引いているだけ、ということがほとんどです。そう捉え直すだけでも、次の一局に向き合う気持ちは変わってくると思います。

As long as you're doing well and winning, problems won't surface.
Even if I'm playing a bit carelessly and making a fatal mistake, I don't mind as long as the results are positive.

However, overlooking such mistakes can lead to serious problems during periods of poor performance.
For example, the image below shows my performance during a period of poor performance a while ago.

Although it's only a small number of games, around 35 half-games, the percentage of last-place finishes is very high, resulting in poor performance.
和了率や放銃率はそれほど悪化していないのですが、勝負の分かれ道となるポイントで、ことごとく悪い目が出続けていた印象です。

The image below shows the results from the period of success that followed that period of poor performance.

I was incredibly lucky, almost to the point of being in cheat mode, and managed to get first place a great many times.
However, this kind of success can't last forever.

The important thing is that your judgment should not waver, whether you are in a bad period or a good period.
Whether you're on a winning streak of 10 games or a losing streak of 10 games, it's important to maintain the same mentality as much as possible while playing.
Even in the games where you came out on top by a wide margin, review the game record to see if there were any hands where you were simply lucky.
Conversely, even if you end up in last place, if the decision itself wasn't wrong and it was just a matter of bad results, then there's nothing you can do about it.

The important question is, "Will you be able to make the same judgment the next time you face the same situation?"
For example, let's say in the first round (East 1), you were able to declare a ryanmen riichi as the dealer, but then you ended up losing to a jump-man hand from a player who followed up.
The results were not good, but what should we consider next?"So, is it possible to decide not to declare a reach in this situation?"That's the point.
Looking back at the game record, it might be an unsettling discard pile where the player is discarding only middle tiles.
Alternatively, there may be signs suggesting the person who dyed the fabric.
However, if, after calmly considering the situation, you decide not to pursue the goal, then it's important not to worry about it.

It's important for players to try to get into the most advantageous position possible before taking the draw to win.
It would be a mistake to refrain from participating in a favorable lottery just because your recent results were poor.
If you have any mental concerns, I think it would be best to refrain from playing a match that day.
Just as the disappointment of yesterday's loss has subsided today, I'm sure I'll be calmer tomorrow.

The importance of reducing the rate of last place (regarding situational judgment)

"Third place is a win"

In a typical game of mahjong, there shouldn't be much of a problem with playing in a way that aims for first place.
However, in the ranking systems used in Tenhou and Mahjong Soul, it's important to avoid coming in last place.
If you get last place once, you need to get first place and second place once each just to break even in terms of points.

Looking at the rankings in Mahjong Soul, most of the top-ranked players have a 4th place rate of less than 20%, with many in the 16% to 18% range.
Since players with a 4th place rate in the 19% range have played over 2000 games to reach that rank, it is clear that reducing the last-place rate is crucial for quickly climbing the ranks.
(Conversely, this also means that even with a success rate of 19% to 20%, you can still advance in rank if you play enough matches.)

In some cases, even when there's a chance of winning first place, if there's a possibility of dropping to fourth place, it becomes important to decide not to take the gamble.
Our motto is "Third place is a win."
If it reduces the possibility of dropping to fourth place, then aiming for third place is by no means a passive approach.

Oriole on flat ground

If you're playing in the middle of the table, you're naturally going to be wary of other players' riichi and two melds, and you'll be making decisions about when to push or fold accordingly.
If your opponent clearly shows an offensive stance, such as by reaching for a winning hand, it's not difficult to respond to it.
Another important thing I've noticed is that when your hand is low in value, you should anticipate folding it in the future and proceed cautiously.

Once you reach the second level of the river, you'll start to get a sense of what your moves are likely to be.
Things like whether your hand will end up being a bad shape even if you have a ready hand, or whether you can play it safe by folding and calling a tanyao.
If you're going to continue with that hand and end up with a cheap, poorly shaped hand, then it's important to hold onto safe tiles that are likely to be passed by other players beforehand.
On average, around the 11th or 12th turn, you should assume that another player will either declare a reach or have a ready hand, so start preparing to fold early.
If your hand is bad, raise your level of vigilance and pay attention to whether any other players are secretly in a ready hand.
Dora tiles are particularly easy to use, and if you haven't seen a single one yourself, it's dangerous.

It might sound discouraging, but in mahjong, on average, you only manage to win about once every four or five rounds.
Rather than forcing yourself to take on a disadvantageous challenge when you have a bad hand, it's better to play when you have an advantage.
Even if you don't win, if other players move their hands sideways, your chances of finishing in fourth place will relatively decrease.
By being mindful of this strategy, it is expected that the percentage of second-place and third-place finishes will increase, while the percentage of first-place and last-place finishes will decrease.

Thinking in the South Market

In the South round, I think there are three different strategies depending on your current ranking.
This is for when you are in 1st place, 2nd or 3rd place, and last place.

Top

If you're batting first, focus on defense.
Even if the second-place player is aggressively attacking and it looks like you might lose your first-place position, it's better not to try to force yourself to stay in the lead.
Specifically, keep the following guidelines in mind.

- Avoid calling a single call on a scoring tile.
If you have a cheap hand that doesn't have all five blocks, you should refrain from calling a bonus tile.
It's fine if you can make a quick move, but it puts you at a disadvantage if other players chase you.
In particular, if your scoring potential is seen through, other players who are in a chasing position will attack even if it means taking risks.

Even if you have the first move, avoid making a bad-looking reach.
Even if you have a high-scoring lead, avoid calling "reach" when you have a bad hand shape.
It's a different story if you can see many of the dora tiles and the other players' scores seem clearly low.
However, other players will likely attack aggressively, and if it comes down to a showdown, having a good hand will be advantageous.
When you're in a floating position in the South round, always play with the possibility of being chased in mind.

- Move your hand towards the target Aridama
While it's generally best to avoid declaring a reach when your hand is in a bad position, keeping it concealed in such a position is perfectly acceptable.
If another player declares a reach, you can flexibly fold or continue to play defensively.
If you pay a little attention to the hand combinations from the initial deal stage, you'll be able to play more defensively.

In the case of 2nd and 3rd place

The approach changes depending on whether there is a point difference or not, but depending on how you behave, you could potentially finish in any position.
If the chances of becoming number one are low, it's probably better not to force yourself to compete.
Try to play aggressively against last place and focus on securing last place as much as possible.

The point difference with the last player is important; if the difference is within 10,000 points, you need to be careful as you could be overtaken if your opponent draws a full house.
Pay attention to the constantly changing score difference and keep track of how your score increases or decreases with each riichi stick.

In the case of Ras

Being in last place when the South round begins is a situation I'd like to avoid if possible.
However, if the last player is in a tightly packed group, I don't think you need to be so focused on offense.

In the case of Las, the dealer's turn is important.
If you still have your turn as the dealer, it's important to be patient and avoid making reckless moves.
Just because the third-place team is within reach doesn't mean you have to force yourself to chase them down.

When Las declares a reach, the other players are unlikely to aggressively challenge him.
Therefore, it is important to make an early, preemptive move and seize control of the game.
If you have a hand worth over 7700 points without concealing your moves, it's necessary to keep it concealed to prevent other players from folding.
If another player has declared "reach," it might be a good idea to counter with a "reverse reach" to try and win the game.

Afterword

I've written about various things I've been thinking about lately.
I mentioned similar things in the previous article, which shows that I'm consciously thinking about the same things.

My own rate of finishing in fourth place is around 20%, so if I want to reach the top rank, I'll probably need more than 1000 more matches.
I feel that this is taking too long and is becoming unsustainable, so I think we need to seriously work on reducing our percentage of fourth-place finishes.