Introduction
When I'm playing mahjong, I often feel like I'm having bad luck.
Even if you make the right decision, it often ends up with a bad outcome.
However, if you are making the right decisions, your performance should converge in a positive direction in the long run.
If that's not the case, then we must consider the possibility that the judgment itself is wrong.
This time, I'll introduce a method to determine how much less lucky you were compared to the average when you declared "Riichi" (a winning hand in Mahjong).
Suzume Tama Book StoreThis article is intended for players of Mahjong Soul, as it utilizes [a specific method/tool].
When you think, "I'm having such bad luck," it might at least help you think, "Ah, I knew it."
The decision to declare "Riichi" is easy to understand.
Mahjong is a series of various random draws.
This includes drawing the right tile each turn, as well as discarding dangerous tiles.
In that situation, it's difficult to definitively say whether it was bad luck or a mistake in judgment unless you're someone who plays mahjong for a considerable amount of time.
In that context, "Reach" is a relatively easy item to determine whether you got it right or wrong.
For example, if you have a two-sided wait and declare a reach first, the expected profit for that hand will be higher in most cases.
Even in situations where you're unsure whether to declare a reach or not, not declaring a reach can be a good decision.ClearlyThe chances of getting the correct answer are relatively low.
Of course, even if you have a winning hand, you can still be chased and end up losing.
Whether you win or lose depends on a bit of luck, but the result is whether your score is positive or negative, so the situation changes drastically.
Even when it seems obvious that going for a reach is the right move, it's not uncommon to be chased and end up losing in one go.
The Riichi strategy has the characteristic that even if the expected value of gain or loss is only slightly different, the result can fluctuate greatly. Therefore, even if the judgment is correct, a bad outcome leaves a strong impression.
When I review my game records from periods when my performance was on a downward trend and try to see what went wrong, I often find that the result of my "reach" calls was poor.
Using the Mahjong Soul Ticket Log to verify bad luck with riichi
The image below shows my riichi record for 100 games during a period when I felt like I was having really bad luck lately.
Hover your mouse over or tap a number to see the average value and your own value.
Looking at "Riichi Discard B," we can see that it is at 14.17%, which is considerably higher than the average.
In approximately 1400 games, my overall TP3T ratio was 8.811, so I've clearly been dealing into a lot of opponents' winning hands.
(Of course, we cannot rule out the possibility that the players' judgments are all wrong.)
「立直放銃A」の場合も同様で、非常に高い放銃率となっています。
In my overall record of approximately 1400 games, my TP3T was 11.821, so I'm clearly dealing into a lot of opponents' hands.
The "Riichi Profit/Loss" was 2093, which puts you in the bottom 7.43%.
The total for approximately 1400 games is 3316, so the profit/loss is quite low here as well.
I think the most frustrating scenario was when you'd get a winning hand, only to end up losing to someone who was chasing you.
The "chase rate," which is the most unpleasant thing when you have the first reach, is also shown to be very high, clearly indicating that you are often chased even when you have the first reach.
As described above, an examination of my reach performance during the period when I felt I was having bad luck revealed that the results were clearly worse than usual.
There was a significant discrepancy when comparing the 100 games played during this period with the total of 1400 games played. Furthermore, since the criteria for making decisions when declaring a reach hadn't changed drastically, it seems that unfortunately, many bad results occurred.
If your rate of multiple hands in a reach or your rate of good-shaped hands in a reach are worse than usual, that could be the reason why you're not getting good results.
When there are many low-quality hands, the range of fluctuations in the results tends to become larger.
It's also important to verify whether you're able to make a reach as usual, and whether that reach was a risky one.
In conclusion
The above explains how to use the Mahjong Soul Ticket Record Shop to analyze your performance when you're in a slump by declaring Riichi.
When you make a move that you believe to be correct but don't get a good result, it directly leads to a decline in your performance, and more importantly, it takes a toll on your mental state.
When you suffer mental damage, it becomes difficult to make sound judgments.
To maintain composure and play calmly at all times, why not understand how unlucky you've been and develop methods for controlling your emotions?
When you feel like you're hitting too many targets, try a test.
When playing Mahjong Soul, there are times when you might feel like, "Aren't there too many one-shot wins?"
However, just like when you feel unlucky, this is usually not a simple illusion, but something that can be explained by logic.
With enough trials, the probability will eventually converge to its original value.
Conversely, when the success rate of hitting a home run seems to deviate from the average, it's usually because of one of the following reasons:
- The number of attempts (number of near misses) is still too small.
- The quality of my reach (the breadth of my waiting options) is different from average.
The latter is especially often overlooked.
Whether you get an Ippatsu depends on "how quickly you can win after declaring Riichi," so if you declare Riichi with a wide range of waiting tiles and a good hand, the probability of getting an Ippatsu increases.
Conversely, if you frequently declare a reach with awkward shapes or narrow waiting tiles, it becomes less likely that you'll get an immediate win.
In other words, the probability of hitting the jackpot in one go is not an independent probability, but rather dependent on the type of reach you are making.
Therefore, when you feel that you are getting "too many one-shot wins," the first thing you should look at is not the one-shot win rate itself, but how much your good-shape reach rate deviates from the average in the mahjong record analysis site.
If your rate of good-shaped reach is higher than average, it's only natural that your rate of winning on the first draw will also be higher than average.
Conversely, even if you feel that there are "too many" hands, it simply reflects your own playing style, and it's not something to question about the specifications or algorithms of Mahjong Soul.
(Conversely, if the rate of good-shaped reach is average or below average, but the rate of one-shot wins is exceptionally high, it simply means that the number of trials is still small and there is likely to be a lot of variation.)